What’s next in New Jersey’s special election: From the Politics Desk

This is the online version of From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, we dig into a rush of retirements hitting Congress, with members feeling pressure from all sorts of different angles to move on. Plus, Steve Kornacki digs into what’s coming next after the special Democratic congressional primary in New Jersey.

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— Scott Bland

Members of Congress are fleeing the job at a historically high rate

By Bridget Bowman

Some feel they’ve hit an appropriate retirement age. Others want to tend to their health or their families. Yet more are leaving because they don’t like the workplace.

Add it all together, and members of Congress are heading for the exit at a historically high rate ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, with two more House Republicans adding themselves to a growing roster just last week.

Rep. Barry Loudermilk, R-Ga., announced Wednesday that he was retiring from Congress, while Rep. Mark Amodei, R-Nev., announced Friday that he wouldn’t run for re-election, either. Loudermilk said he wants “to spend more dedicated time with my family,” while Amodei said it was “the right time for Nevada and myself to pass the torch.”

The latest retirements mean 60 members of Congress have decided not to run for re-election this year — 51 House members and nine senators. It’s the most retirements from both chambers combined this century, according to historical data from the Brookings Institution’s Vital Statistics on Congress. That includes lawmakers who are retiring from political life altogether and those leaving their seats to run for other offices, but it doesn’t include members who have resigned or died during the current Congress.

The number of House departures is inching closer to a recent high in 2018, when 52 lawmakers didn’t run for re-election. And, as in 2018, which was a bruising election year for the GOP, more House Republicans are heading for the exits than Democrats.

Lawmakers can choose to retire for a variety of reasons, including the personal — health issues or long commutes to Washington infringing on time with family — and the political, from chasing opportunities to run for higher offices to weighing the unappealing prospect of being relegated to the minority. And on top of it all, Congress can simply be a frustrating place to work.

Democratic Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi is one of more than two dozen members leaving the House to run for higher office, as he’s running for the open Senate seat in Illinois.

“The chance to be in a body that would, for instance, be able to hold the president accountable, with regard to Supreme Court justices, continue to pursue my agenda with regard to making the American dream possible for people who feel like it’s slipping out of reach right now, making staple items more affordable, it’s too hard to pass up,” Krishnamoorthi recently told NBC News. “So I’m seeking a promotion.”

Asked why so many of his colleagues are retiring, Krishnamoorthi noted that the political arena hasn’t exactly been a pleasant place to be in recent years.

Read more →

What’s next in New Jersey: A special general election — and another looming primary

Analysis by Steve Kornacki

Former Rep. Tom Malinowski conceded to Analilia Mejia today in the special Democratic primary for New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, all but ensuring that Mejia will move on to the April general election against Republican Joe Hathaway.

With several thousand ballots still to be counted, NBC News has not projected a winner, but Mejia’s lead is now at 886 votes and has only grown in each update since election night. Mejia, an organizer and activist backed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., ran to the left her opponents and lacked the party organizational support traditionally needed to win a Democratic primary in New Jersey.

In the April 16 special election, she will be the clear favorite over Hathaway, who is the mayor of Randolph. Largely suburban in nature, New Jersey’s 11th District, which spans parts of Essex and Morris counties and a small slice of Passaic, backed Kamala Harris by 9 points in 2024 and Joe Biden by 17 points in 2020.

But this is also turf that, in the pre-Trump era, was winnable for Republicans. The general election will test whether Mejia’s left-wing platform and some of her strident rhetoric will cause unease among moderate suburbanites — or whether broader concerns about President Donald Trump will override any hesitations they might have about her.

One big factor working in Mejia’s favor is the clear trend in House special elections since Trump returned to the presidency. All five Democratic nominees so far have posted net gains of double digits over Harris’ 2024 vote shares in their districts.

The April special election is merely to fill the remaining months of the unexpired term of Mikie Sherrill, who held the seat before she was elected governor. One outstanding question is whether Mejia will face any opposition in the June primary for the full two-year term.

Here, all eyes will be on the pro-Israel group AIPAC and its affiliated super PAC, which played a potentially decisive role in this primary, flooding the airwaves with anti-Malinowski ads. The intended beneficiary of that effort, former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, is on course to finish in third place. Given that Mejia has been far more critical of Israel than Malinowski, there’s no question AIPAC would like to keep her out of Congress. The question is: Would an AIPAC-aligned candidate choose to go after Mejia in June — and would AIPAC be ready to spend again (and risk getting more egg on its face)?

Speculation here centers on Way, who during the primary refused to rule out running again in June. Perhaps the prospect of significant financial support would entice her to seek a one-on-one matchup with Mejia, who is on course to get around only 30% of the vote in the special primary. If Way runs, she will need to file paperwork by the end of March, which would be awkward timing given that the special general election will be in full swing then. If Mejia were to underperform in the special election, it might offer Way fodder for June.

But Way will also face enormous pressure from within her party not to go for it. As Malinowski made his concession today, the state Democratic chairman called on the party to unite behind Mejia, and Sherrill herself followed up with an endorsement of Mejia. Quickly, many of the benefits of incumbency are now likely to accrue to Mejia. And Malinowski, in his statement today, also pledged that if there is an AIPAC-backed candidate in June, “I will oppose that candidate and urge my supporters to do so as well.”

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Scott Bland and Owen Auston-Babcock.

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