Key events
Pegula 3-6 2-2 Rybakina* Mentally, Pegula hasn’t recovered from Rybakina’s dominant start, and is struggling to deal with her forehand coming under attack; her coach is trying to reassure her that she knows the tactic and can cope by giving herself space, but she won’t let herself believe it. Still, she gets to 30-all from 30-0 as the Kazakh seeks to endorse and has a look at a second serve; she doesn’t give it the treatment she should, but an error from Rybakina hands over break-back point … converted when she stops in the rally long enough to benefit from the error. Might that be a momentum switch? Er, probably not, but you never know.
*Pegula 3-6 1-2 Rybakina At 15-0, Rybaina forces Pegula to play another shot thanks to a running forehand down the line and it’s netted, then a further netted forehand takes us to 30-all. Pegula isn’t enjoying this – you can see her getting down on herself with every error – and even when a fine backhand switches momentum in the next rally, a miserable volley allows Rybakina to go down the line, and the stretch-volley again hits the net. Then, serving at break-point down, Pegula lands one right in the slot, the ball power-glided into the corner for a winner, and I’m afraid this match is passing her by.
Pegula 3-6 1-1 Rybakina* Every time Pegula talks to her box, she lets us know she’s not happy; her coach is constantly trying to reassure her she can win, a perspective she doesn’t seem to share. With good reason, Rybakina responding to a 0-15 deficit with a glorious backhand winner then a volley at the net – having approached cross not line, a dangerous tactic showing her confidence. She holds to 30 but never looked under threat.
*Pegula 3-6 1-0 Rybakina Even as Pegula makes 40-0, there’s the sense that it’s taking everything she’s got, while Rybakina has plenty in reserve. She holds to 15, but can she make an impression on return?
Elena Rybakina wins the first set against Jessica Pegula 6-3
Pegula 3-6 Rybakina* Between games, Pegula’s coach told her to get her legs under her instead of lunging at the ball – currently, she’s hitting off balance, rushed by her opponent’s power, when she might step back to give herself a little more time. At 15-all, Rybakina delivers a service winner, her next effort is also too good, raising two set points … but a leaping backhand winner from Pegula ups the pressure. For all the difference it makes, a forehand winner larruped cross-court cementing the advantage.
*Pegula 3-5 Rybakina It really feels like, after a weird period with slams won by all manner of player, women’s tennis is on the cusp of a golden age. Sabalenka and Swiatek already have 10 between them, Gauff has two, Osaka four, Rybakina one, and Anisimova is coming, Andreeva too. There are going to be some serious tussles over the next five years and I’ve not a clue how they’ll shake out but, in the meantime, Pegula holds to 30, forcing the Kazakh to serve for the first set.
Pegula 2-5 Rybakina* More like it from Pegula, a gorgeous backhand cross breaking the sideline for 0-15. But a forehand winner gives Rybakina 30-15 and from there she secures another straightforward hold, the authority in her play a delight to behold. She’s a game away from the first set.
*Pegula 2-4 Rybakina Pegula nets a backhand for 15-all and for now at least, it feels like she’s playing not competing, reacting not dictating. I don’t know if it’s nerves or just how well Rybakina is playing, but the Kazakh dominates the next rally to make 15-30, Pegula telling her box she can’t do anything before hitting long to donate two double-break points. She saves both, though, then nails her best serve of the match so far, down the T and unreturned, then Rybakina sends a backhand long, but there’s nevertheless a big difference between the way the two are playing.
Pegula 1-4 Rybakina* Rybakina makes it seem so easy – her power is so natural, almost lazy. Unlike Sabalenka, she never looks like she’s trying to hit it harder than anything’s been hit before, the speed of her ball more about timing than physicality. She holds to love and as long as she serves like this, she’ll be very hard to beat.
*Pegula 1-3 Rybakina there were signs in that last game that Pegula is growing into it, but also signs that she can do all the growing she likes and it won’t matter. And the next game offers more of the same, Rybakina finding a terrific backhand winner at 30-0 to make things interesting, before failing to attack the kind of second serve Sabalenka would’ve liquidised. And when Pegula goes wide, at 40-30 she has another go at a second delivery, again failing to attack it, and the American is on the board.
Pegula 0-3 Rybakina* This is a very useful start from Rybakina, effortlessly emphasising her points of difference to make 30-0. And though a better shot from Pegula, deep into court, rushes her into netting, she quickly raises two game points and looks to have secured the first, only for a decent get to force her into volleying … and again, she nets. Ooooh, and look at that! Out of nowhere, Pegula hooks a forehand winner from centre to corner, making deuce – she’ll need more of those – but a further unforced error donates advantage, and a return into the net means Rybakina consolidates her break.
*Pegula 0-2 Rybakina The power differential is apparent immediately, Pegula forced to play several shots to still find herself down 0-30; Rybakina has started really well and gets close with a flat forehand return, which is just long, then again. But when Pegula wafts one of her own that sails over the baseline, she must face break point, finding a decent serve only to swat a backhand into the net when it’s returned well. Stop me if you’ve seen this one before.
Pegula 0-1 Rybakina* Rybakina’s serve looks in good working order, her ball toss nice and high, and she nails three first deliveries in making 40-0. And the one second go she has to take is no less devastating, down the T and almost an ace, then cleaned up via forehand.
Rybakina to serve, ready … play.
In a way, this second match is a facsimile of the first, except Pegula is better than Svitolina and Rybakina isn’t as good as Sabalenka – with both playing perhaps as well as they ever have. Rybakina, in particular, might’ve hit a new level in recent months, her improved consistency underpinning her natural power; if she plays well, she’ll win, but Pegula has the skill and smarts to stop her from doing that.
Coming up next: Jessica Pegula (6) v Elena Rybakina (5).
Sabalenka is an absolute joke. Her hitting was, as it always is, sensational, but what’s changed over the years is her ability to deliver power and precision under pressure. Mentally, she’s much more even, never getting too high or too low – once upon a time, the hindrance call might’ve hindered her – and she’s reinventing women’s tennis in real time.
Sabalenka tells Jelena Dokic that she can’t believe she’s reached the final without losing a set – I can’t say I believe her – and she’s super-proud of the achievement, but the job isn’t finished yet.
Svitolina is a difficult opponent who’s been playing great tennis, so she’s glad to be through. She’s been watching her play, so felt she had to step in and put pressure back on her, so again, she’s happy to have recorded a great win.
The only other woman to reach four consecutive finals is Martina Hingis nearly 30 years ago, and how asked how proud her 10-year-old self would be, she feels the emotion of the occasion and of a life going exactly as desired; the answer she and Dokic decide upon is “extremely”.
Between now and the final, she and her boyfriend – who’s been enjoying the sun by the looks of things – are watching Homeland and only on season two, so that’s the plan.
Aryna Sabalenka (1) beats Elina Svitolina (12) 6-2 6-3
*Sabalenka 6-2 6-3 Svitolina Svitolina, still unable to solve the riddle of how you beat an opponent superior to you in all aspect and superior to anyone who’s ever played the game in some; she goes long for 15-0, another error ant it’s 30-0 … but a moon ball, played as a recovery-shot, falls long; 30-15. Naturally, Sabalenka responds with an ace down the T, raising two match points, the first of them snatched with first serve and two murderous forehands. A performance brilliant in its relentless, remorseless predictability and the world no 1 is into the final again.
Sabalenka 6-2 5-3 Svitolina* Can Svitolina force Sabalenka to serve for it? She races to 40-0, but a double has the crowd sighing, another fault elicits the same reaction, and though the next serve lands in, it’s a soft one, eventually converted into 30-40. The next return, though, drops long, meaning Sabalenka will now serve for the match and a place in a fourth consecutive final.
*Sabalenka 6-2 5-2 Svitolina When you watch Sinner and Alcaraz play anyone but each other, there’s the sense that they’ll play as well as the situation demands of them; they know no one can hurt them. And Sabalenka moves with the same aura, certain that only she can beat herself which, even if it’s not true, gives her a psychological advantage over opponents trying to work out a way to get at her. But as I type, errors hand over 0-30, then at 30-all, a backhand winner from Svitolina, a second serve given due punishment, raises break-back point. This is the match right here – there may not be another chance – and you can only laugh when Sabalenka swats a forehand winner down the line like it’s nothing – for avoidance of doubt, it is not nothing – to make deuce. And from there, she closes out to go a game away.
Sabalenka 6-2 4-2 Svitolina* Down 0-15, Svitolina will be relieved to see a return fly long, but she’s soon back under pressure … so leaps into a forehand winner down the line; shot. But a backhand that drops fractionally long reminds us how difficult it is to play Sabalenka, the pressure to hit long or be cut short lingering through every point. Svitolina does, though, struggle to 40-30, then they zetz at each other from the back, a 15-stroke rally ending when she flaps one long, looking to get out of a point she’s more likely to lose the longer it goes. And when a double follows, the match passes before her eyes, Sabalenka ramming home her advantage with a decent return then a backhand winner to the opposite corner. This is, as we feared, almost over.
*Sabalenka 6-2 3-2 Svitolina Yeah, time’s up. Sabalenka stomps through a love hold, and you fear for Svitolina when she serves after change of ends.
Sabalenka 6-2 2-2 Svitolina* Down 0-15, Svitolina plays a really good and controlled point; “it’s your arena, Aryna,” shouts a hilarious man in the crowd. And she’s showing why, disciplined hitting taking her to 15-40 and simply astonishing hitting, to one corner then the other, seizing back that break. Sabalenka isn’t perfect, but beyond the titles she hasn’t finished winning, she has changed our conception of the possible for evermore.
*Sabalenka 6-2 1-2 Svitolina The problem Svitolina has is she didn’t change anything, Sabalenka just lost focus for a game, having won the first set. But she’s back into it now, a love hold underlining that reality. I’d not be remotely surprised to see her break back in the extremely near future.
Sabalenka 6-2 0-2 Svitolina* Suddenly, the energy in the arena changes. A terrific get from Svitolina allows the unforced error which follows, making 30-0 then, at 40-0, another dead net cord turns a poor shot into a winner; again, the apology has us choking up, and thus is the break endorsed.
*Sabalenka 6-2 0-1 Svitolina I still remember the feeling the first time I saw Sabalenka play – I’d never experienced anything remotely like it, quite a sensation given I’d been watching this thing of ours for upwards of 35 years at the time. The thrill of seeing a ball assaulted in that way sustain even now though, as I pontificate, a loose game sees her donate 30-40 without demanding anything of Svitolina, then she swings a backhand long, and this is other side of the coin I just described: in our sport, with great power comes great vulnerability, every big shot fractions from being a poor shot.
Aryna Sabalenka takes the first set against Elina Svitolina 6-2
Sabalenka 6-2 Svitolina* An overhit forehand gives 0-15, then a pair of balls down the middle, when Svitolina had time to put Sabalenka on the bike, is punished with a hooked forehand winner. From 0-30 we move to 0-40 and three set points, the first saved when Svitolina hits deep – that might be her key to success – because again, the response is poor. A friendly net cord saves the second opportunity, the apology moving and heartfelt, but an unconscionable backhand, dematerialised flat, acute, and cross-court, secures break and set. Sabalenka is devastating.
*Sabalenka 5-2 Svitolina At 30-0, Svitolina lands a backhand close to the baseline, exactly the kind of shot she needs to find more often – she can’t match the power, but she can combat it with nagging accuracy. Then, at 40-15, she gets to enjoy a second serve, belting back a winner down the line, and when Sabalenka comes in to close out the game a forehand on to the tootsies takes us to deuce. This is better from Svitolina, and she goes for a backhand down the line next rally … only to clip the top of the net. Contextually, that, like the netted drop in her last receiving game, is a chance spurned, and from there, Sabalenka closes out the hold, scoreboard pressure mounting.
Sabalenka 4-2 Svitolina* Down 0-15, Svitolina lands the outermost fibre of the ball on to the outermost fibre of the T for a an ace; Sabalenka looks at the evidence on the screen with deep disgust. We wind up at 30-all, and a terrific point from the world no 1 underlines her superiority, a comfortable putaway at the net after dominant clouting from the back raising a point for the double break. But Svitolina saves it when a return falls long – that was a chance for Sabalenka – but then on advantage, she again mistreats a second serve to restore deuce. Svitolina, though, survives another second serve – and each one really feels like death sentence – to again raise game point, converted via ace. She’s still in the set, just.
*Sabalenka 4-1 Svitolina At 15-all, Sabalenka doesn’t hit the corner with an approach and is passed very nicely, then Svitolina comes in and in mid-court, has so much unreachable space into which she can hit, opting instead to try a drop … which she nets. That feels like a big moment, turning 15-40 into 30-all, and from there the consolidation is secured.
Sabalenka 3-1 Svitolina* Oh! Sabalenka hit a loopy forehand with grunt, then when she thinks it’s going out, emits a slightly different grunt of disappointment immediately after, it stays in, and the umpire calls her for hindrance – which seems harsh. She’s as delighted by this as you’d expect, asking for a review before eventually dismissing things with a wave of the hand; 0-15. A longer rally then ensues, Sabalenka trying a variety of noises as she dominates the exchange and eventually winning the point when Svitolina swipes wide; naturally she then approaches the chair wondering exactly what kind of pitch, tone and reverberation is permitted; no vocal coaching is forthcoming. But have a look! Sabalenka drops, Svitolina chases, and somehow, racket just above the surface, she steers a sensational, impossible winner cross-court. But she’s fully extended just keeping pace, forcing her way to 40-30 only for a second serve to receive the treatment … then again when she makes advantage. And after Sabalenka saves a further game point, she again climbs into a second serve, eventually hammering a forehand winner down the line, and from there she secures the break, her power and accuracy too much. I can’t lie, I’m hoping she repairs back to the chair for further grunt philosophy, but she’s too professional these days.
*Sabalenka 2-1 Svitolina Sabalenka storms to 40-0, a backhand winner, thunked down the line when off balance, the the highlight. Her ability to hit winners from anywhere is like nothing we’ve seen before in the women’s game, and the hold is secured to 15.
Sabalenka 1-1 Svitolina* But while she’s staying patient in pursuit of the break, can Svitolina hold? Sabalenka dominates the first rally of the game, but it’s quickly 15-all, then a netted return is followed by a tame double for 30-all. And from there, Svitolina closes out, the point which secures it a prototype of sorts, blocking back the power then responding well to a drop with a precise pick-up to the corner.
*Sabalenka 1-0 Svitolina (*denotes server) A forehand winner down the line and Svitolina is into the match; she needed that because even if Sabalenka holds, she’s unlikely to win this match from behind. And when Sabalenka tries a drop, she races in … only to flick her riposte long, a missed opportunity. But she does make 15-30 and, when an inside-out backhand falls wide, has two break points; early drama coming up. An inside-out forehand that breaks the sideline confiscates the first, then a sensational backhand angle, from the corner flying flat and acute cross-court to again break the sideline for a winner does likewise with the second. Svitolina knows there are going to be plenty of those, those being ludicrous winners only Sabalenka can hit, and that she has to stay patient; from deuce, the hold is secured.
Sabalenka to serve, ready … play.
You can’t argue with Svitolina’s run to the last four. She’s beaten Shnaider, Andreeva and Gauff – who, admittedly, had her absolute worst day – without losing a set, won in Auckland before that, and won’t ever have felt better about her game. I’m excited to see what her plan is, because we can be sure she’ll have one.
Here come our players. Svitolina looks nervous, Sabalenka businesslike.
These two have played six times, Sabalenka winning five; Svitolina’s win came on clay, in 2020.
Chances are, Sabalenka takes it in two, however well Svitolina plays. But we’ve all seen her break or melt down and, though it happens far less often these days, when you know it’s in you, you know the possibility exists.
There are, more or less, two ways of beating Sabalenka: the Wawrinka approach, used to beat Djokovic and Nadal in grand slam finals, which involves going for everything, or keeping the ball in play and waiting for errors or the chance to hit winners. I don’t think Svitolina has the power or flow to take the first option, so it’ll have to be the second, but aggressively pursued.
Why don’t the people love me?
🗣 “I find it a little bit disrespectful!”
Novak Djokovic took issue with a reporter’s question about him “chasing” Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. 🤷♂️ pic.twitter.com/ox7CrrtpJQ
— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) January 28, 2026
Svitolina, meanwhile, morphed into a different player after giving birth and following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, fired with all the love and hope now she’s competing for others as well as herself. She’ll need to serve well, and off the ground, keep Sabalenka moving – not just side to side, but forward and backwards. If she can, then she’s a chance, but it’ll take the match of her life.
I say Keys suddenly decided she could win, but actually, there was nothing sudden about it. Rather, it was the culmination of years of defeats, no-shows and collapses, prompting soul-searching, coach-changes and the terror of unfulfilled potential. The change was sudden, but the process was painstaking.
Preamble
G’day and welcome to the Australian Open 2026 – day 12!
It’s not often you wake up on a dingy and cold winter’s morning mentally rubbing your hands together but, indubitably, this is one such occasion.
In our first match, Elina Svitolina is the latest to try and solve the hard-court conundrum of Aryna Sabalenka. The champion here in 2023 and 2024, having also won the last two US Opens, she has – so far – been the best player in either draw, marching into the last four without losing a set.
Last year, Sabalenka was beaten in the final by Madison Keys – and by destiny, facing an opponent who, after years of losing when it really counted, suddenly decided she could win. But Keys is one of few able to match the world no 1 for clean-hitting power; if Svitolina is to prevail, that will need turning against her though clever use of angles and spins. It’ll take the performance of a lifetime to turn possibility into reality, but her form suggests it’s in her, if she can only find it.
Our second semi-final features a not-dissimilar contest, Jess Pegula looking to mitigate her lacking power and athleticism with desire, consistency and renewed belief that is almost religious. Still improving at 31, like Keys last year she has a sense that, for the first time, her game is in good enough shape to beat the best players on the biggest occasions.
Elena Rybakina, though, is also in terrific nick, having won the year-end WTA finals and begun this season in similar vein. Her joyously uncomplicated thwacking is a delight to behold, a product of long levers and glorious timing, but Pegula might just’ve conjured a way to respond, her anticipation and speed allowing her to block back balls into demanding areas, thinking her way around the court just as Svitolina has to.
Or, in other words, this is going to be great. Let’s go!